Posted on Sat, Aug. 30, 2008

Ray Buck: Don’t make room for BCS trophy yet, Georgia

College football preseason polls belong in a hermetically sealed envelope, buried in an air-tight vault far below the earth’s surface, and marked: "Open Only If You Want a Good Laugh."

I’m sure, except maybe for Geraldo Rivera, no one would willingly dig up one of these things.

In a perfect world, they would remain there, uncovered, unread ... a nonentity.

But I guess some of us miss the fundamental reason that preseason football polls exist. (No ... not to annoy us. That’s a bit further down the list.)

Preseason polls are recklessly rolled out there by voters to spark debate among college football fans. It’s an old ploy. Preseason polls are hogwash.

Georgia, No. 1?

Why?

Apparently because the Bulldogs of the esteemed SEC beat up on Hawaii of the lesser WAC 41-10 in the Sugar Bowl eight months ago.

That’s like a movie critic reviewing a newly released movie based strictly on something he saw last year.

That, too, might spark debate. But it doesn’t make it gospel.

A team should be required to play an actual game (and not some cupcake, either) before it can be ranked.

OK, I’ve railed enough on preseason polls. Let’s play the game: How long can Georgia stay No. 1?

The smart money is on "not long," because the Dawgs have a bear of a schedule, including five brutal road games, of which they might be able to win three.

And nobody is counting on another two-loss BCS national champion being crowned this year in Miami.

Georgia can’t possibly beat LSU at Baton Rouge, La., (Oct. 25) and revenge-minded Florida at Jacksonville, Fla., (Nov. 1) ... although, see, in my world, the Dawgs are ranked anyway.

So what’s the big deal?

There are only a handful — literally a handful — of teams in the country capable of winning the national championship: Ohio State, Florida, Oklahoma, Southern Cal and Missouri.

I know, I know. All five of these teams are ranked near the top of every Top 25 published this month. Purely coincidental.

I didn’t say the pollsters are wrong across the board. I merely see their August pick of No. 1 being almost curse-like.

Only a couple of times in the nearly 60 years of preseason polls has the preseason No. 1 ended up being the same team to finish as consensus No. 1 in the final polls.

Sorry, Georgia. It’s more than a tough schedule you face.

It’s also history going against you.

Last year’s college football season ended in New Orleans with LSU (12-2) beating Ohio State (11-2) by two touchdowns, 38-24.

The year before, Ohio State reached the BCS title game in Glendale, Ariz., but lost to the Florida Gators 41-14.

So, is the third time the proverbial charm for the Buckeyes?

Could be. But I’d like to see Ohio State play a game before I go Chris "Beanie" Wells on you.

And speaking of the Heisman Trophy ...

The reason Mizzou is national championship-worthy is QB Chase Daniel of Southlake Carroll, and not just some rehash of last year’s 12-2 record and a bunch of returning lettermen.

Daniel and Wells should remain strong in the Heisman running, but only as long as the Tigers and Buckeyes keep winning. That part we know.

And if the 2007 college football season was any indication of things to come, buckle your seat belt and put all preseason predictions in that vault far below the earth’s surface.

Before now, when was the last time neither Florida State nor Miami were in the preseason Top 25? Answer: 1977.

Before now, when was the last time either South Florida or Wake Forest made the preseason Top 25? Answer: Never.

The SEC (namely Florida, Georgia, LSU, Auburn and possibly Tennessee) easily will be the strongest conference in the country.

I’m eager to see, at Auburn, the impact of first-year offensive coordinator Tony Franklin’s spread offense on the Tigers’ win-loss record.

The Big 12 will remain the most wide-open offensive conference in the country.

I’m eager to see ex-LSU defensive coordinator Bo Pelini spin his magic as first-year head coach at Nebraska.

And, of course, we all wonder: Will Bob Stoops ever win another BCS bowl game?

The Big Ten and Pac 10 are "Lone Ranger" conferences: Ohio State and USC, that’s it when you’re considering teams with a chance to play Jan. 8 at Miami.

And how is that "Michigan Man" thing working out for Rich Rodriguez as the Wolverines require time to get their act together again?

Meanwhile, I’m not taking the preseason polls at face value.

I’m not ready to debate Texas vs. Texas Tech, Kansas vs. Nebraska or even OU vs. Mizzou until these Big 12 teams step on the field and play an actual game, which starts today.

Right now, all we really know is that Georgia has no shot.

The preseason pollsters took care of that.