Texas Politics

With early voting starting Oct. 21, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in Texas poll

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris during their debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday night, Sept. 10, 2024. Two clashing visions of the country were on display during their first and possibly only debate, encapsulating the gambles that each candidate is taking in this hotly contested campaign: Trump is betting on anger and Harris on exhaustion.
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris during their debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday night, Sept. 10, 2024. Two clashing visions of the country were on display during their first and possibly only debate, encapsulating the gambles that each candidate is taking in this hotly contested campaign: Trump is betting on anger and Harris on exhaustion. New York Times

Former President Donald Trump has a five percentage point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Texas just days before the start of early voting.

Trump, a Republican, is projected to get 51% of votes to Harris’s 46 among likely Texas voters, according to the poll from the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston. One percent of those surveyed said they intend to vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein and two percent said they were undecided.

The poll was conducted online and surveyed 1,329 likely Texas voters between Sept. 26 and Oct. 10, with a 2.69% margin of error.

An average of polls compiled by 538 has Trump ahead in the state by 6.7 points, as of Oct. 14.

Ninety three percent of respondents who voted for Trump in 2020 said they plan to vote for him again in 2024. Harris kept the support of 92% of 2020 Biden voters.

In person early voting starts Oct. 21 and runs through Nov. 1. Election Day is Nov. 5.

This story was originally published October 15, 2024 at 7:00 AM.

Eleanor Dearman
Fort Worth Star-Telegram
Eleanor (Elly) Dearman is a Texas politics and government reporter for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. She’s based in Austin, covering the Legislature and its impact on North Texas. She grew up in Denton and has been a reporter for more than six years. Support my work with a digital subscription
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